On a weekend when the softer tyre is only lasting a few laps while the medium option shows great longevity, Webber is the highest-placed starter on the more durable Pirellis.
His polesitting Red Bull team-mate Sebastian Vettel and the two Mercedes ahead all qualified on softs.
Webber is four places ahead of next-highest medium tyre starter Fernando Alonso.
Asked if he felt that gave him a shot at winning the race, Webber replied: "Yeah. It needs everything to go right. You have a chance to be in a good position at the end.
"But, you cannot really say how the race is going to unfold in terms of tactics. And how we saw [Romain] Grosjean in the middle of Suzuka, where did that come from? It only takes one guy to stop you winning.
"You don't know how clean a run you will have you come out of the pits, so that is a big factor in it.
"You would think that the guy on the harder tyre should have a cleaner first 20 laps in the race, but if he has a clean run back through then the [driver on the] option is still pretty good."
Webber admitted that the laptime deficit to Vettel was not all due to tyre choice.
"I would probably be a tenth and a half off Seb - so it was still a pretty good lap," he said.
"To be eight or nine tenths clear of some others guys on the prime was good, as I felt we weren't as competitive on the prime to be honest."