England are best when they play their game - and as such, should set themselves up to win the match. If they get it right on the night, they will have too much quality. Montenegro will be quite happy with a draw and, if England can play a mature waiting game, they will get chances.
A draw would not be a bad result for England, but it would be a disappointing one. If it was the first game in the group, they would take a draw going to Montenegro. But we're now at the stage where this is a game that England need to win, and they've got the better players. They should expect to win these games, even when they are away from home.
It's poignant now because Montenegro are top of the group and they haven't lost any games - but it's pointless trying to paint the picture that this is a great international team, because they patently are not.
They do get the most out of their players, but there is a tendency to make them out to be better than they actually are. They're an average international team - there's no way around it.
The two players who are a danger are Mirko Vucinic and Stevan Jovetic. The good thing about Vucinic from England's perspective is that, although he's a great striker, he's not a great goalscorer: he's an exceptional technical player, but he does a lot of his best work with his back to goal and you can deal with that.
England will miss Rio Ferdinand in this game. There will be spells in the game when they will come under pressure - for five minutes, 10 minutes - and that's when you need your experienced players, somebody like Ferdinand who is used to that at Manchester United: when they come under that pressure, they deal with it and then they go and play again.
I expect Joleon Lescott to play in his place. I know he's had limited playing time at Manchester City but he's the best option at the moment. He has the experience to cope with Montenegro - with Vucinic playing with his back to goal and a long way from the goal, he will always be in front of him. As rusty as Lescott might be, he will be able to deal with that, as opposed to a centre forward who is always playing on your shoulder and looking to break in behind.
Jovetic will come from behind, he's a very clever player, but I just don't think they will be enough.
Having said all that, England do have a self-destruct button which they press sometimes when they play. International football is played differently: they can get frustrated when things are not going their way and they can't get the ball off the opposition. They can then get caught on the counter-attack having left themselves open through that frustration.
That's a very British thing, to want to get the ball as quick as you possibly can, then to do things as quick as you possibly can. Montenegro will be quite happy to play at their own tempo, take the sting out of the game then try and get their better players involved - that's the danger.
Possession is going to be important. As expected, the possession stats against San Marino were impressive, but you'd have been worried if they weren't. You can't learn anything from a game like that. But all England could do is do their job: scoring eight goals was fantastic and nobody got injured, but there's nothing to learn from games like that. I know one or two of the fringe players like Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain got a chance, but it's not an international-level test to face San Marino.
I'd be surprised if Michael Carrick doesn't have a role playing behind the midfield. His strength is reading the game and he will be tasked with stopping the ball going in to Vucinic, just floating in front of the back four.
Steven Gerrard will be the box-to-box midfield player: if England come under pressure he will help out, and if they get on the ball he will play forward and become a goal threat. An all-action midfield player, while Carrick keeps the balance in the team.
Wayne Rooney was sent off for kicking out in the same stadium and missed Euro 2012 games as a result. I think that hot-headed streak is still in Rooney's makeup - he's always capable of doing that. It appears to me that he gets frustrated because he's still that big happy kid who just wants to play. Montenegro have said they will target him, but that's why I think that, tomorrow, it won't happen. He'll be on his best behaviour and he'll expect it.
If England get a grip of the game the sudden lack of atmosphere will work for them. Even when under pressure, you can still look in control - it is important that they don't appear rattled, that they give the impression that they can cope with anything Montenegro have got and the atmosphere. England should have enough experience.
England are doing okay under Roy Hodgson. It was unfair to judge him at short notice at the Euros and with what he's got, he's done well. His teams are always very organised, difficult to beat and not taking a lot of risks - it'll never be the most entertaining football, but he'll get us to the World Cup and probably to the quarter-finals. England don't have the players for an extravagant manager - as someone to organise the players they've got, Roy is right on the money.