Eurosport - Sun, 06 Jul 08:13:00 2008
We take a look at the chief contenders for the maillot jaune.
Cadel Evans (Australia / Silence-Lotto)
Having finished second last year, the understated Australian justifiably starts the race as favourite in the absence of Spain's Alberto Contador. Evans began the season strongly, winning a stage of Paris-Nice on Mont Ventoux and finishing second at Fleche Wallonne. His second place at last month's Dauphine Libere shows his form remains excellent.
Evans will expect to put time into the likes of Damiano Cunego and Alejandro Valverde in the time-trials, while his performance in the mountains in last year's race impressed many.
His main weakness in recent years has been the strength of his team. While Valverde is blessed with an Armada of diminutive climbers to protect him, Evans has largely been left to fend for himself. Hence Lotto's recruitment of Yaroslav Popovych at the end of last season. Evans will need the talented Ukrainian to be at his best if he is to claim the yellow jersey, and at 31, he knows this will be his best ever chance.
Alejandro Valverde (Spain / Caisse d'Epargne)
When Valverde outsprinted Lance Armstrong to win stage 10 of the 2005 Tour de France in Courchevel, he was hailed by all and sundry as a future Tour winner. Since then, he has somewhat disappointed, crashing out in the 2006 Tour before the peloton hit the mountains.
An expected challenge for the yellow jersey last year never materialised, and Valverde even suffered the indignity of being caught by Michael Rasmussen in the time-trial at Albi for three minutes.
If Valverde's appetite and resilience has been called into question, his talent has most certainly not. Early season wins in his hometown Tour of Murcia and Liege-Bastogne-Liege were followed up by a victory in the Dauphine last month. Stat fans will point to the fact that Lance Armstrong has been the only man to follow up a win in the traditional pre-Tour warm up with a Tour victory since the days of Miguel Indurain, though many feel Valverde's form can still improve.
Though the Spaniard's strength undeniably lies in the mountains, his impressive win in the time-trial at the Dauphine raised many an eyebrow - not least those of Evans and Levi Leipheimer, who were beaten by 19 and 20 seconds respectively. Comparing this with his performance in the TT in the same race last year, where he gave away 39 seconds to Evans, shows just how much he has improved in this discipline.
Denis Menchov (Russia / Rabobank)
Regardless of one's view on Michael Rasmussen's expulsion from last year's Tour de France, it would have taken a heart of stone not to feel deep sympathy for Menchov, who abandoned the race during the following day's stage in tears.
Having widely been expected to lead the team during the race, Menchov found himself in the position of Rasmussen's domestique after the Dane's solo win at Tignes. After working his socks off for his team-mate for the best part of a fortnight, the big Russian was more devastated than anyone as the whole saga eventually meant his efforts would count for nothing.
His reaction was highly impressive. Menchov showed up five weeks later at the Vuelta in superb form, and dominated the race to claim the gold jersey for the second year running.
A genuine all-rounder whose victories on Mont Ventoux and Pla-de-Beret showed that Menchov could compete with anyone in the mountains, though with Thomas Dekker out of form and out of the team, he is unlikely to have anyone to support him when the serious climbs begin.
Damiano Cunego (Italy / Lampre)
There are few better ways to announce your arrival on cycling's biggest stage than by winning a grand tour at the tender age of 22, while having the temerity to upstage your compatriot and team leader in the process. This is exactly what Damiano Cunego did at the Giro d'Italia in 2004, incurring the wrath of Gilberto Simoni, who labelled him "an idiot." Classy.
Though he won the young rider's classification at the Tour in 2006, it has come as something of a surprise that the diminutive Italian has not gone on to achieve greater success. A fifth-place finish in last year's Giro was somewhat underwhelming, though a win at the Amstel Gold Race and a third place finish at Fleche-Wallonne this year suggests Cunego has regained his magic touch.
The latest in a long line of small Italian climbers, Cunego will be grateful for the three big mountain top finishes, as well as the relatively short first time-trial. The splendidly-named Sylvester Szmyd could prove an important domestique in the Alps and the Pyrenees, though whether Cunego will be able to take enough time in the mountains to make up for his likely losses in the time-trials remains doubtful.
Other contenders
Andy Schleck could become Luxembourg's most famous citizen if he can follow up his impressive performance at last year's Giro with a win at the Tour, and he will be able to count on the support of a strong CSC team, including brother Frank. The amusing Riccardo Ricco and his rather large mouth will both be making their first Tour start, though his exertions in May's Giro will surely count against him, even if his mouth is in fine fettle. Spanish mountain goat Carlos Sastre is never a bad each-way bet, while Roman Kreuziger will also be a marked man following his surprise win at the Tour of Switzerland. Euskaltel duo Samuel Sanchez and Haimar Zubeldia will both count on huge support in the Pyrenees, though are unlikely to have the quality to make the podium.
Prediction
Evans, Valverde and Menchov are indisputably the three front-runners, though so were Alexandre Vinokourov, Andreas Kloeden and Valverde before last year's race. A win for a rider as unassuming and honest as Evans would give the sport's reputation a much-needed boost, and he looks to have the necessary quality in all areas to edge out his rivals.
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Comment 1 - 17 of 17
i bet on Riccardo Ricco because he did beat Alberto in Giro and i dont se anyone in Le tour who can do this , although Contador wasn't prepeared for Giro, allez Ricco!!
ASO will continue banning teams till the moment the french cyclist will have a chance to reach podium.
But I don't see anyone who is able to do it in the near future..
So expect more boring toures in coming years..
Hope Ivan Basso will come back next year and add some action!
Some of the posters are too accepting of the team structure and the guilt by association. Leipheimer/Cantodor are great champions with impecable personal and professional records. Whoever wins this year will have an asterix next to their name. When you win, you want to beat the best. Its likely one of the excluded riders would have challenged or won - however wins this year will never know if he was the true champion - neither will the fans. And what is the reason? Because the brand name of the team has a tarnished reputation. That is like keeping a current member of the Chicago White Sox off the all star game because of the Black Sox scandal so many years earlier.
ASO banned Astana because they were not about to let Johann Bruyneel win another Tour. Banning Astana was the only way they could ensure that Bruyneel would not win. ASO tried to pin drugs on Lance and could not and this was the way to get even. Shame on them.
ASO banned Astana because they were not about to let Johann Bruyneel win another Tour. Banning Astana was the only way they could ensure that Bruyneel would not win. ASO tried to pin drugs on Lance and could not and this was the way to get even. Shame on them.
If there is no proof of doping by a particular cyclist, why is the ASO leaving this cloud of guilt on the atheles and letting it affect the whole Tour. Of course the standard will drop this year and the Sponsors are certainly scarce. Maybe this is a move to make sure a French man wins with no competition
The tour is organized by kids. they do not have any sense of maturity by excluding the Astana. There are surely no dopers in the current astana. Vinokourov is gone and Astana is now under a new staff and management. Shame on the tour. the best riders in Contador etal will not be there and i pity the cycling world for being denied the chance to witness the best riders in the world race against each other.
I will still be watching even more so than previous years. I applaud the strong statement that the ASO have made re astana and also what astana themselves have done. The team was obviously rotten re Drugs and it was right of astana to bring a new team manager and riders in but does that mean automatically they should compete the following year? i don't believe so. the ASO had to say enough is enough if you cheat you are out even if you change the management, cheating is cheating. They will be back next year and will give them more drive it will be a great 2008 and even better 2009.
those of you showing fickle support for cycling making comments such as I won't watch the tour "for the first time and 30 years" or "may check the results in the paper" are not true fans of cycling, therefore your opinion is irrelevant. go watch golf.
one of the best teams won'tbe there and two 2007 podium finishers can't participate this year we may have a frenchman in the top 5 ASO has taken the enjoyment out of the TDF this years winner may be a great rider but he will not compete against the best so there will still be a ?mark is he really the best or just the best that was allowed to compete ? ASO you have freed up my July I won't watch TV coverage I may check results in the paper mabe 2009 we will see the best teams and riders and you will get over you're vendetta .
Who cares - The TdF is bigger than any cheating cyclists. Long live the Tour
because of vinokourov the whole team was banned... why not quickstep avec boonen story or milram after pettachi's and so and so...
Why bizarely only Astana has not the right to participate?
So tell me where Contador went out of the law? He had 13 seconds advantage in the end, not 13 minutes!
I agree, much as I want to see the best ridders, they have to stay within the law, and they all know if they get caught with any drug abuse they are out. Longterm it can only be good.
After how well it went last year in london I'm amazed at the lack of advertising. Not even seen adverts for it on TV.
I disagree. The sport has to clean up its act, there's no way it can continue on the spiral the sport is in. If it means sacrificing quality for a few years than so be it. And the quality isn't completely removed. There are still some terrific riders in the field, and if nothing else the lack of a previous winner (bar perreiro by default) adds a bit of intrigue to it for me.
the Tour is dead. Not watching it for the first time in 30 years or so. The killed the tour by eliminating all favorites, often without any proof of wrongdoing.
Evans does leave me cold; a winner should have some charm and personality at least; he has none.
When does football starts again?
Its a shame to see a Tour de France without the best riders competing.
Where is the proof that Contador, Kloeden or Leipeimer were or are doped?!!!
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